If the outgoing First Minister took that course of action, there would be a by-election to select a new MSP for the Glasgow constituency. At the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election, the Labour candidate in Glasgow Southside was Anas Sarwar. A candidate cannot contest an election to the Scottish Parliament if they already hold a seat at Holyrood [Scotland Act 1998: Section 9]. So, if Sarwar was to contest a by-election in Glasgow Southside, he would first have to stand-down as a Regional List MSP for Glasgow.
Of course, Sarwar might choose not to be the Labour candidate at such a by-election, but what would that say about how he thinks his party is likely to perform in Scotland? Would the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland really allow the country to see that he, personally, was feart to fight the SNP in a one-off by-election?
So, if Nicola Sturgeon stood down as an MSP, creating a by-election in Glasgow Southside, the pressure would be on Anas Sarwar to lead from the front for Labour and to contest the seat. Would Sarwar have the courage to do that, given he would have to stand-down from his current position as a List MSP for Glasgow and, if he didn't win the by-election, he would be out of the Scottish Parliament until 2026? On the plus side for Anas Sarwar, though, is the chance he could be the Labour candidate who took the seat of the former SNP First Minister.
Just for background: the first Scottish Parliament constituency by-election was in March 2000, just 10-months after the first full elections in 1999. Labour MSP Ian Welsh stood-down in the Ayr constituency. At the 1999 Election, the Tory candidate was Phil Gallie, who had previously been the MP for Ayr. Labour's majority was just 25. Despite this, Gallie chose not to fight the by-election, which would have required him to stand-down as a List MSP for South of Scotland. In the 2000 by-election, the Tories took Ayr with Labour falling to third behind the SNP.
In 2006, on the death of SNP MSP Margaret Ewing, there was a by-election in the Moray constituency. Richard Lochhead for the SNP and Mary Scanlon for the Tories were both sitting List MSPs representing the North East Scotland Region. Both stood-down to contest the constituency by-election. Richard Lochhead won for the SNP, while Mary Scanlon finished second and was out of parliament until the 2007 Scottish Parliament Election when she was again returned as a Regional List MSP for North East Scotland.
So, if Nicola Sturgeon stood-down as an MSP and created a by-election in the Glasgow Southside constituency, would Anas Sarwar be prepared to stand-down as a Regional List MSP for Glasgow to contest the constituency seat, or would he bottle-it, remain as a List MSP and send the message that he doesn't think Labour would win with him as the candidate?
Ultimately, a decision on whether or not to call a by-election in Glasgow Southside lies with Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. If they haven't considered the position a by-election would place Anas Sarwar, they should have. Of course the SNP would have to consider that they might lose a by-election. However, given that the SNP majority in Glasgow Southside at the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election was 9,465, surely the party could not throw away such a massive electoral advantage. Actually, given the state of today's gender-obsessed SNP, they might want to sit tight, even if that lets Anas Sarwar off the by-election hook.
